Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_3/V13_327.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #327

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 327

Today's Topics:
              Re: JPL spacecraft
          Re: Space shots on CDROM for AMIGA
             economic vs technical limits
              Re: More cost/lb. follies
           Commercial Space news (1 of 12)
           Commercial Space News (2 of 12)
 NASA to feature Space Station Freedom at Paris Air Show (Forwarded)
           Commercial Space news (9 of 12)

Administrivia:

    Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  [e-mail].  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests,
  should be sent to [e-mail], or, if urgent, to
             [e-mail]

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Date: 26 Mar 91 08:42:48 GMT
From: zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5![e-mail]  (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: JPL spacecraft

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Ron Baalke) writes:

>....JPL is the only one to send spacecraft to all of
>the planets except Pluto.

Not only that, but JPL has been _first_ to every planet, and their
Explorer probe also discovered the Van Allen belts (without which discovery,
we would have had some toasted astronauts).

Of course, being ex-JPL I am also a highly biased cheerleader.  Way
to go, ladies & gentlemen of Pasadena!



--
Nick Szabo            [e-mail]
"If you want oil, drill lots of wells" -- J. Paul Getty
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.

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Date: 26 Mar 91 22:20:33 GMT
From: swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!caen!news.cs.indiana.edu!ariel.unm.edu!leo.unm.edu![e-mail]  (Mr.HolierThanThou)
Subject: Re: Space shots on CDROM for AMIGA


        For cd-roms try Randy Davis [phone]
                        also cfa140.harvard.edu?
        There is other stuff put out by Nasa but if you are not a researcher
or connected officialy with an educational facility, I don't know how you
could get them except by bugging Randy.

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Date: 22 Mar 91 22:06:21 GMT
From: dog.ee.lbl.gov!hellgate.utah.edu!csn!ub!dsinc!unix.cis.pitt.edu!pitt!nss![e-mail]  (Paul Blase)
Subject: economic vs technical limits

to: [e-mail] (John Roberts)
re: ongoing arguement, esp w/ Nick Szabo

 JR> If you do not understand the distinction between technical and
 JR> economic limits, then Henry's exasperation may be justified. If
 JR> you do understand the distinction, then please do not twist the
 JR> terminology like this.

Good arguement.  Let's also not forget that the technology associated
with commercial aircraft is not standing still.  The average cost of
an airliner may be relatively stable (I'm not even sure of that), but
the airlines are getting much more for their money with each generation
of aircraft.  NASA is doing work on such things as ultra-high-bypass
jet engines (which look like a backwards turboprop with the fan blades
in the rear, and promise to really boost fuel economy; the newest
generation of Boeing craft are fly-by-wire, with glass-cockpits; and the
use of composite materials is growing.  In general, for the same cost,
you get a bigger, more reliable, and cheaper to operate aircraft.

Now a parallel arguement is not quite applicable for space launchers,
because they are thrown-away after each mission (until the single-stage-to-
orbit craft get going).  In this case, instead of getting more performance
for a given price, we need a smaller price for the same performance (more
or less - they'll always be a market for bigger boosters).  The current
generation of boosters may be pushing the <current> state-of-the-art,
but I doubt that it will stay that way for very long. Don't forget that
progress is continuously being made on new materials, alloys and composites;
better fuels; and new engine designs.  I think that it is the Japanese that
are currently working on air-fueled rocket engines. Instead of carrying
LOX, the engine takes in air, cools and liquifies it on the spot, and
burns it.

--- via Silver Xpress V2.26 [NR]
--
Paul Blase - via FidoNet node 1:129/104
UUCP: ...!pitt!nss!Paul.Blase
INTERNET: [e-mail]

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Date: Tue, 26 Mar 91 13:06:30 -0500
From: "Allen W. Sherzer" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: More cost/lb. follies
Newsgroups: sci.space
Cc: [e-mail]

In article <[e-mail]> Nick Szabo writes:
>If we plot cost/lb. vs. rocket size it has a minimum in the midrange: both
>low-end (Pegasus) and high-end (Shuttle, Titan IV) have higher cost/lb. than
>Delta and Atlas.

Not true. I don't have figures for Titan IV but a commercial Titan with the
new solids will put up almost four times what a Delta will put up for about
20% less per pound. If you will comit to buying the launches either company
will sell you a heavy lift version lifting 100K to 150K pounds for a factor
of three below the Delta costs [1].

Another alternative: if you will buy a lot of 58 engines Rocketdyne (sources
say) will sell you F-1 engines rated at 1.8 million pounds of thrust for
$12.7M each. Say we buy five for ~$65M and figure another $85M for the rest
of a rocket (payload fairing, tanks, and avionics). This will put a quater
million pounds to LEO for $600/pound. The next lot of F-1's will cost even
less.

   Allen

[1] I know you are going to say they are unproved because they havn't flown
    yet. However, these companies are offering to sign fixed price contracts
    so you WILL get the services for a factor of three less. Since they know
    far more than you or I about design I suspect they will make money on it.

------------------------------

Date: 26 Mar 91 05:18:59 GMT
From: swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space news (1 of 12)

This is the fifth in an irregular series on news from the commercial
space business.  The commentaries are my own thoughts on these
developments.  Posted in 12 messages (My apologies - message length
restrictions at my up-load point, and I got behind in updating this
series).

Contents -
 1- THIRD JAPANESE COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE NETWORK IN WORKS
 1- SUGGESTION MADE FOR GENERAL DYNAMICS TO SELL OFF ATLAS BUSINESS
 2- LOCKHEED RUMORED TO HAVE WON IRIDIUM SATELLITE CONSTRUCTION
    CONTRACT
 3- GEOSTAR SECURES FINANCING TO STAY IN BUSINESS
 3- OSC WINS AIR FORCE EXPERIMENT CONTRACT
 4- CHANGE OF COURSE FOR ADVANCED MOBILE SATELLITE? (2 msgs)
 6- LOCSTAR PROCEEDS TOWARDS EUROPEAN NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM
 7- ARIANESPACE FORECASTS SLOWING SATELLITE LAUNCH MARKET IN LATE
    '90s (2 msgs)
 9- JAPAN'S ROCKET SYSTEMS CORP PREPARES FOR COMMERCIAL BIDDING
10- GET READY FOR THE WARC
11- CBO STUDY RELEASED ON PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN SPACE (2 msgs)

Articles
------------------------------------------------------------------
THIRD JAPANESE COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE NETWORK IN WORKS
  Japan has only since 1989 allowed individual firms to own and
operate communications satellite networks in Japan.  The recent 2
satellite operators in Japan are expected to be joined by a new firm
which was recently announced in Tokyo. Satellite Japan Corp was
recently instituted  with an initial investment of 400 M yen (about
$3 M) from Nissho Iwai, Sumitomo Corp, and Murabeni trading
companies. They have filed a request with Japan's Ministry of Post
and Telecommunications to launch 2 domestic satellites by 1994.  It
was reported that to complete the construction and launch of the
satellites, another 20 billion yen (about $156 M) from these
investors and another 40 billion yen (about $372 ) in loans would be
needed.

SUGGESTION MADE FOR GENERAL DYNAMICS TO SELL OFF ATLAS BUSINESS
   In a recent Goldman Sachs research report, analyst Judith Comeau
made a couple of suggestions for General Dynamics future business.
This research report focused on the spin-off values of GD's
commercial businesses which would increase the value of GD stock,
and included the suggestion that the commercial Atlas launch
business be sold off to or spun off increase earnings for the GD.
She estimated the value of GD's launch vehicle business at 60% of
sales of about $130 M.
   [Commentary: Will GD sell off its Atlas launch business?  Not
likely - their launch activities are too closely tied to some of
their DoD business and the up-coming HLLV or other programs.
Selling off the division would not help them compete for a part of
the estimated $10-15 billion HLLV - and getting an immediate $130 M
for the Atlas business pales in comparison to even a 10% share of
HLLV at $1-1.5 B.  This recommendation (made as part of an overall
buy recommendation by Goldman Sachs) plus a buy recommendation by
Paine Webber, did however, boost the price of GD stock on the 13th
of March by over $4/share, peaking at $30/share on the 15th.
Other securities firms and analysts, notably Paul Nisbet of
Prudential Bache disagreed with this recommendation and put a Sell
advisory on the stock.]




--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: 26 Mar 91 05:20:13 GMT
From: swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space News (2 of 12)

LOCKHEED RUMORED TO HAVE WON IRIDIUM SATELLITE CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT
   Rumor has it Motorola Inc is expected to award Lockheed Space
Systems Division the contract to be the major manufacturer of the
satellite buses for the 77-satellite Iridium small-satellite
constellation.  If current reports are correct, an agreement between
the two firms is in final negotiation and should be announced within
a week or two.  Motorola would design and build the communications
payload for the satellite and manage the overall program, for which
Lockheed would provide the satellite bus.  Unsuccessful bidders for
this contract would include GE Astro and Fairchild.  The key to
Lockheed's success is given to be its willingness to go out and push
for the Iridium concept in the global market, rather than act as a
simple equipment supplier or manufacturer.  The current target for
the Iridium system is 7 rings of satellites, with each ring
containing 11 small satellites (weight about 400 kg each), in a 765
km polar orbits.  When operational, each Iridium satellite would
receive a communication from a cellular transmitter below it, then
relay the message to a satellite closer to the desired destination,
which would transmit it to a ground receiver.
  [Commentary.  If true, this win will be a major coup for Lockheed,
who will enter into the commercial and small satellite markets in a
big way.  It makes sense that Lockheed, as a major manufacturer of
DoD satellites, would be interested in entering the small sat
business, as there is a lot of current DoD interest in this area.
Since it is expected Lockheed will have to come up with a new
satellite design for this small of a satellite (the "frugal-sat"
project previously reported on from Lockheed would be a good
starting point, but it would have to be shrunk dramatically to fit
Iridium), they will be making a significant investment into this
area.  Coupled with the current Lockheed activities in Small ELVs,
they will be close to being able to compete with OSC and other firms
who offer a "one stop" service for small satellite and launches -
with a very strong market position to offer this service to their
existing DoD customers.  It also would enter them into the
commercial side of the markets, which is of growing importance to
them, as the DoD business begins to contract.
   However, there are still a lot of risk areas left - First, this
rumor could be wrong.  Even if it is correct,  Iridium is still a
long way from being a real program.  The hardest part of Iridium has
always been setting up an international consortium or organization
to fund and operate the constellation.  Particularly, since each
country has to set aside the required compatible frequencies for the
cellular services, and also pressure the international
Telecommunications Union at the World Administration Radio
Conference conferences to set aside these frequencies as well.
While I have seen some activities on the hardware side of Iridium, I
have heard very little regarding any activities to resolve this
difficult and critical side to the equation.  Until I see the
formation of the consortium, some level of activities at the up-
coming WARC (see later), and some realistic international financing
being done, this program can only be listed as "tentative".].



--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: 27 Mar 91 20:06:42 GMT
From: [e-mail]  (Peter E. Yee)
Subject: NASA to feature Space Station Freedom at Paris Air Show (Forwarded)

Debra J. Rahn
Headquarters, Washington, D.C.                            March 27, 1991
(Phone:  [phone])


RELEASE:  91-47

NASA TO FEATURE SPACE STATION FREEDOM AT PARIS AIR SHOW


    The Space Station Freedom will highlight the NASA exhibit at
the 39th Paris Air Show, Le Bourget, France, June 13-23.  The
centerpiece of the 7,000 sq. ft. exhibit will be a full scale mock-up
of a Space Station Freedom module.

    Visitors will enter a module that combines the space station's
habitat and laboratory facilities into one.  They will view the crew
quarters, the personal hygiene and exercise facilities and the galley.
In the laboratory portion, there will be a furnace facility, protein
crystal growth facility, modular containerless processing, life support
system "salad machine" and gas grain simulation facility on display.

    Japan, Canada and the European Space Agency are partners with
NASA in Space Station Freedom.

    Other NASA programs featured in the exhibit are Mission to
Planet Earth and aeronautics research.  The NASA exhibit also will
commemorate 30 years of manned U.S. space flight with a large mural at
the exhibit's entrance.

    On June 14, NASA Administrator Richard H. Truly will hold a
press briefing in the U.S. Pavilion.  On June 17, Astronaut Daniel C.
Brandenstein, Chief, Astronaut Office and Commander of the first
Endeavor Space Shuttle mission, will meet the press.

    NASA has been a major participant at the Paris Air Show since
the mid-1960s.

------------------------------

Date: 26 Mar 91 05:27:34 GMT
From: sdd.hp.com!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!zardoz.cpd.com!dhw68k!ofa123![e-mail]  (Wales Larrison)
Subject: Commercial Space news (9 of 12)

JAPAN'S ROCKET SYSTEMS CORP PREPARES FOR COMMERCIAL BIDDING
   Rocket Systems Corp of Tokyo has announced they plan to bid on
three upcoming satellite launch services contracts.  Rocket Systems
Corp is the Japanese firm which was established in July 1990 to
coordinate the manufacturing and supply of H-2 rockets for NASDA and
the Japanese space industry.   Currently they employ about 40
persons who act as prime contractor for the H-2.  Their initial
capital investment was 480 M yen (about $4M) to manage NASDA
launches only - but since the major shareholders to Rocket Systems
Corp are all of the contractors for the H-2 (led by Mitsubishi
Heavy Industries) they have pretty deep pockets.
   Their efforts to market the H-2, however, are not expected to
pay off until the Japanese government writes appropriate legislation
or regulations to handle commercial launches at NASDA's Tanegashima
Space Center, where the H-2 is planned to be launched from.  And it
is highly unlikely that payloads will be placed on the H-2 until the
system has been proven.  NASDA has had problems in the development
of the LE-7 cryogenic engine for the H-2, suffering several major
fires and explosions in the development effort.  However, the LE-7
was recently successfully fired at full thrust and duration, so it
appears those development problems have been solved. The H-2 will
have 1 LE-7 cryo engine and 2 solid rocket boosters in the first
stage, and have a smaller cryo engine, the LE-5 in the second stage.
Problems with the LE-7 have pushed the development cost to almost
100 billion yen (about $781 M), and delayed the planned first flight
of the H-2 until Feb 1993.
   If used to support a commercial bid, it is expected that Rocket
Systems will bid on the Intelsat-7, Inmarsat-3, and NTT (Nippon
Telephone and Telegraph) satellite launch contracts.  This is a
potential target market of 4+9+2=15 satellites, all to be launched
in the mid to late 1990's. The H-2 is expected to be able to launch
payloads of up to 2200 Kg into GEO, meaning that it would make up
to 15 launches, if all contracts were won.  Current plans are the H-
2 are for 1 launch/ year 1994 - 1996 for NASDA satellites, then
growing to about 2 NASDA launches/ year after 1996.  Commercial
mission projections are 1 or 2 launches/year in the late 1990's.
   [Commentary: this has been expected for some time.  One of the
purposes for developing the H-2 was to remove U.S. technology
transfer restrictions from Japanese launch systems.  And to reduce
the costs of the system to the Japanese government, Japan was always
planning on spreading the costs with commercial users.   However,
the Japanese found a lot more problems and costs in the H-2
development than they were expecting, and saw other firms become a
lot more competitive for commercial Japanese satellites (including
political pressure which cancelled one NASDA satellite in favor of
a U.S. commercial satellite, with subsequent launch on an Ariane).
This has been furthermore aggravated by growth in the Japanese mini-
shuttle (the HOPE vehicle) which has pushed it well past the
capability of the H-2 planned to be used for its launch.  So the
Japanese government will have to go back and develop a new, larger
H-3 vehicle to handle those missions - which will also increase the
costs of the H-2 since it will not be used as much and will not be
able to achieve the expected economies of scale.
   But the Japanese firms behind RSC have deep pockets and a
demonstrated willingness to make large investments that make take
years to mature - with government support through NASDA and MITI to
ensure some market for their vehicle.   This will be one to watch -
and one which may have interesting political ramifications.]



--
Wales Larrison
Internet: [e-mail]
Compuserve: >internet:[e-mail]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

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End of SPACE Digest V13 #327
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